TULSA — The American University Professor who has successfully predicted presidential races since the early 1980s says Vice President Kamala Harris will be the 47th president of the United States.
Professor Allan Lichtman tells KRMG his system involves 13 keys to the White House.
[Hear the KRMG In Depth Report on Professor Allan Lichtman HERE]
If any six of those indicators flip to the negative, the current party in the White House will lose, he says; otherwise, the party will continue its occupancy at the top of the executive branch of government.
He first came up with the system after meeting a Russian geophysicist considered the leading expert in earthquake prediction in 1981, Lichtman tells KRMG.
It was Vladimir Keilis-Borok, Lichtman said, who came up with the idea of teaming up to develop a way to predict presidential races.
“It was his idea that we become the odd couple of political analysis by combining my knowledge of the presidency, U.S. politics, and history with his methodologies of pattern recognition,” Lichtman told KRMG Monday.
“We examined every presidential election from the horse and buggy days, the election of Abe Lincoln in 1860, through 1980 using pattern recognition to develop the 13 key factors that could separate out victory and defeat for the White House party,” he explained.
He admits the current race posed unique challenges, as it features unprecedented factors like the incumbent president pulling out of the race just days before his party’s convention.
But, the 13 keys remain unchanged after all these years, Lichtman says.
“Every four years someone says to me ’gotta change your keys! We have an African-American running in 2008, country’s not ready for that.’ And I say ‘I don’t change them,’ and I correctly predicted Obama.”
Lichtman says at worst, the Biden-Harris administration will see five keys flip negative, and so he’s predicting a win for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.